UK records 20,530 more COVID-19 cases and 224 deaths but SAGE believes R rate has dropped slightly
The UK today announced 20,530 more coronavirus cases and the deaths of 224 people but official data suggests the country's outbreak may finally be slowing down.
Positive tests are up 31 per cent on last Friday, when there were 15,650, and deaths have surged by 65 per cent in a week.
But Government scientists today claimed the crucial R rate has dropped slightly and an array of statistics revealed cases are no longer growing as quickly as they once were, although the epidemic is still growing. SAGE estimates the reproduction rate for the UK has fallen for the first time in a month, from between 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4. The number - the key measure at the heart of Number 10's plan to control the virus - must stay below one, or the outbreak will continue to grow.
And the Office for National Statistics, which tracks the size of the Covid-19 outbreak through thousands of random swab tests, today revealed that the number of people catching the coronavirus in England alone every day stood at 35,200 last week.
Despite being a 26 per cent rise on its previous estimate and double that of a fortnight ago, top scientists insisted that the figure was 'hopeful' because the speed of growth has clearly dropped. Cases doubled between October 2 and 9, then jumped by two thirds (62 per cent) the following week to 27,900 per day, according to the ONS data, which is considered the most reliable indicator of the true size of the crisis.
And in other promising developments, MailOnline today revealed that almost half of local authorities in England saw their coronavirus infection rate drop last week. Newcastle and Nottingham, which are both battling some of the largest Covid-19 outbreaks in England, witnessed some of the biggest drops.
The data echoes comments by the UK's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, who said yesterday that there are now signs local lockdowns are starting to work and that case numbers are beginning to show 'flattening' in some areas.
Despite the shred of optimism, SAGE advisers warned that they were 'almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow exponentially across the country'.
The data come as more draconian lockdown rules are springing up across the UK. Warrington in Cheshire today became the latest to confirm it will impose Tier Three measures, while badly-hit parts of Nottinghamshire also face the threat of tighter curbs to strangle the virus.
In Wales, which is heading into a tougher 'firebreak' lockdown today, the leader Mark Drakeford has been accused of going 'power mad' after he banned the sale of 'non-essential' items at supermarkets, with Tesco and Lidl workers becoming Wales's first 'trolley police' as they were seen covering up electrical items.
Researchers on King's College London's Covid Symptom Study, who predict there are 36,000 new cases of symptomatic Covid-19 per day in the UK, has predicted that the next places to move into Tier Three restrictions will be Hartlepool, Sunderland, Stockton-on-Tees, Gateshead, Darlington and County Durham in the North East; Bradford in the North West; and Nottingham and Bassetlaw in the Midlands.
Scientists have repeatedly called for a 'circuit breaker' national lockdown to try and stop the spiralling outbreak and 'turn back the clock' to allow the test and trace system to catch up and to prevent hospitals getting overwhelmed. Wards in the North West are filling up fast and some now have more patients now than in April.
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